What If the Iranian Regime Collapses? Global Writers and Analysts Weigh In
What If the Iranian Regime Collapses?
Amid escalating tensions between Iran on one side and Israel and the United States on the other, a critical question arises: What happens if the Iranian regime collapses? The consequences of such a scenario would not be limited to Iran alone but would extend to regional and global security.
1. Global Writers and Analysts Weigh In
Many writers and experts believe that the fall of the Iranian regime would mark a turning point in global politics. Several key scenarios are envisioned:
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Loss of Control Over the Nuclear Program: Experts such as David Albright, President of the Institute for Science and International Security, warn that a sudden collapse could lead to a loss of control over nuclear sites—posing severe environmental and health risks to Iran and neighboring countries, including the Gulf states.
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Internal Chaos: Researcher Karen von Hippel, from Chatham House, cautions against a power vacuum that could lead to violent internal conflict among factions, especially between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and opposition groups.
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Regional Spillover: American columnist Thomas Friedman warns that regime collapse could trigger retaliatory violence by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.
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Economic Catastrophe: According to The Economist, the fall of Tehran’s regime would plunge Iran into a total economic meltdown, with global implications for oil markets.
2. Secret Talks on “Post-Regime” Iran
According to CBS News, American and European diplomats have confirmed that secret talks are underway about Iran's future should the current regime collapse. These talks focus on:
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Who would govern Iran next?
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How to secure nuclear sites and materials?
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What would be the environmental and health consequences of military strikes on nuclear facilities?
One American official stated that President Trump was genuinely committed to diplomacy and reluctant to drag the U.S. military into a Middle East war—but remained uncertain about who might take power if the Iranian regime fell. The report added that Trump retained the ability to order a military strike even while away at his golf resort in Bedminster, New Jersey. A secure communications wing is always prepared for his arrival at any out-of-town location.
3. “Last Shot” for Diplomacy
American and European diplomatic sources believe the next two weeks could offer a final window for diplomacy to end the Iran-Israel conflict—an opportunity President Trump provided this week before deciding whether the U.S. would join Israel’s offensive.
On Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with European foreign ministers in Geneva, while Israel's bombing campaign and U.S. military buildup continued in the region. The meeting, which lasted nearly four hours—double its original schedule—included:
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French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot
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UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy
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German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul
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EU High Representative Kaja Kallas
After the meeting, Barrot noted further discussions were planned, emphasizing:
“The problem of Iran’s nuclear program cannot be solved by military means alone.”
Lammy added:
“We were clear: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.”
Araghchi himself expressed support for continuing negotiations.
4. Iran's Possible Withdrawal from the NPT
In a serious development, Chairman of the Iranian Parliament's Foreign Policy Committee, Abbas Golrou, declared on Sunday via "X" (formerly Twitter) that Tehran has the legal right to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) under Article 10, following U.S. strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran.
Article 10 states that any party to the NPT may withdraw if it believes extraordinary events have jeopardized its supreme national interests.
5. The Lingering Question
Has the U.S. succeeded in destroying Iran’s nuclear reactors?
Despite Iranian claims that enriched uranium was moved before the U.S. strike, Western intelligence has not confirmed these assertions. If the claims are true, Iran may still possess the nuclear material needed to construct a crude weapon or advanced missile in a short time if ordered by the Supreme Leader.
Conclusion
Ultimately, the collapse of the Iranian regime is not a distant or implausible scenario. It is a topic of serious concern in diplomatic and military circles. While it could open the door to new opportunities for peace and reform in the region, it also threatens to unleash a wave of chaos that could last for decades.
The most pressing question remains:
Is the international community truly prepared for the day after?
And do regional and global powers have a clear vision for a post-regime Iran?
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